HVAC Equipment forecasts for 2011 & 2016

HVAC Equipment forecasts for 2011 & 2016

US demand to rise 3.2% annually through 2011

Demand in the US for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment is forecast to increase 3.2 percent per year to $16.8 billion in 2011. Advances will be primarily driven by strong gains in nonresidential construction, along with ongoing growth in the residential replacement market. Although gains will be restrained by projected declines in new single unit housing completions between 2006 and 2011, nearly threequarters of HVAC demand is attributable to replacements. Growth in the replacement sector will benefit from rising interest in more energy efficient building systems driven by rising energy prices, spurring the replacement of older HVAC equipment with newer models. Changing regulations regarding minimum efficiency requirements for many of these systems will also affect sales of HVAC equipment.

Geothermal energy systems to lead gains from small base

The choice among various fuels used in HVAC systems is largely affected by the convenience, environmental friendliness, availability and price of the fuels, and the initial costs, operational costs and efficiency of the systems that use the fuels. In 2006, electric powered HVAC systems accounted for 82 percent of US sales value and natural gas-burning systems accounted for 16 percent of sales. Systems operating on geothermal energy will post the strongest gains, albeit from a very small base.

Heat pumps to stay largest, fastest growing heating type

Heat pump shipments reached $2.1 billion in 2006, accounting for the largest share of total heating equipment shipments with 43 percent. Additionally, they are expected to post the strongest gains through 2011. Heat pump shipments benefit from the ability of these units to provide efficient heating and cooling in moderate climates from a single system. Benefitting in part from the relatively low initial costs of these systems, warm air furnace shipments totaled nearly $2 billion in 2006. Shipments of unitary air conditioners amounted to $6.9 billion in 2006, representing 83 percent of all cooling equipment shipments. Unitary air conditioners and packaged terminal air conditioners are forecast to achieve above average annual gains, benefitting in part from their use in industrial and commercial markets, two areas that are expected to post strong recoveries in construction spending through 2011.

Study coverage

It presents historical demand data (1996, 2001 and 2006) plus forecasts for 2011 and 2016 by fuel, product and market. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles leading industry competitors including American Standard, Goodman Glboal Holding, Johnson Controls, Lennox International, Paloma Industries and United Technologies.

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